Jon Steinsson

Disentangling Age, Time, and Cohort Effects in Income Inequality: A Proxy Machine Learning Approach

(with David Bruns-Smith and Emi Nakamura)

AAbstract (click to expand): A canonical finding from earlier research is that the cross-sectional variance of income increases sharply with age (Deaton and Paxson, 1994). However, the trend in this age profile is not separately identified from time and cohort trends. Conventional methods solve this identification problem by ruling out “time effects.” This strong assumption is rejected by the data. We propose a new proxy variable machine learning approach to disentangle age, time and cohort effects. Using this method, we estimate a significantly smaller slope of the age profile of income variance for the US than conventional methods, as well as less erratic slopes for 11 other countries.

Beyond the Taylor Rule

(with Emi Nakamura and Venance Riblier)

Presented at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, August 2025.

AAbstract (click to expand): The Federal Reserve partially “looked through” the post-Covid rise in inflation and ultimately managed to bring about an “immaculate disinflation.” The Fed’s policy deviated strongly from the Taylor rule during this period. More generally, central banks with strong inflation-fighting credentials looked through post-Covid inflationary shocks yet experienced less inflation than more hawkish but less credible central banks. In light of this episode, we assess the degree to which the Taylor rule is descriptive, and the degree to which it should be viewed as prescriptive. While the Taylor rule (generally) fits well during the Greenspan period, it (generally) fits poorly in the early 1980s and after the early 2000s. Academic work has emphasized the role of the Taylor rule in preventing self-fulfilling fluctuations (guaranteeing determinacy). These concerns can be addressed with a shock-contingent commitment and are fragile to deviations from fully rational expectations. We discuss three reasons why optimal policy may not always imply a one-for-one response of interest rates to inflation (forward guidance, correlated shocks, and “long and variable lags”). The main challenge arising from such policies is not indeterminacy but erosion of inflation-fighting credibility and potential deanchoring of long-run inflation expectations. Only central banks with strongly anchored inflation expectations and large amounts of inflation-fighting credibility are likely to be able to look through inflationary shocks.

Replication Package

Macroeconomic Effects of UI Extensions at Short and Long Durations

(with Miguel Acosta, Andreas Mueller and Emi Nakamura)

AAbstract (click to expand): We study the macroeconomic effects of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit extensions in the United States at short and long durations. To do this, we develop a new state level dataset on trigger variables for UI extensions and a “UI Benefits Calculator” based on detailed legislative and administrative sources spanning five decades. Our identification approach exploits variation across states in the options governing the Extended Benefits program. We find that UI extensions during time periods when UI benefit durations are already long—such as in the Great Recession—have minimal effects. However, UI extensions at shorter initial durations have substantial effects on the unemployment rate and the number of people receiving UI, with larger estimates during Covid. We relate our estimates to microeconomic estimates of the effects of UI extensions through the lens of partial and general equilibrium models.

Identification in Macroeconomics

(with Emi Nakamura)

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(3), 59-86, Summer 2018.

Slides

Appendix

Replication Material

Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

(with Emi Nakamura)

Annual Review of Economics, 5, 133-163, 2013.

AAbstract (click to expand): We review recent evidence on price rigidity from the macroeconomics literature and discuss how this evidence is used to inform macroeconomic modeling. Sluggish price adjustment is a leading explanation for the large effects of demand shocks on output and, in particular, the effects of monetary policy on output. A recent influx of data on individual prices has greatly deepened macroeconomists’ understanding of individual price dynamics. However, the analysis of these new data raises a host of new empirical issues that have not traditionally been confronted by parsimonious macroeconomic models of price setting. Simple statistics such as the frequency of price change may be misleading guides to the flexibility of the aggregate price level in a setting in which temporary sales, product churning, cross-sectional heterogeneity, and large idiosyncratic price movements play an important role. We discuss empirical evidence on these and other important features of micro price adjustment and ask how they affect the sluggishness of aggregate price adjustment and the economy’s response to demand shocks.

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Exchange Rate Depreciations

(with Masao Fukui and Emi Nakamura)

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 140(4), 3015-3065, November 2025.

AAbstract (click to expand): We study the consequences of “regime-induced” exchange rate depreciations by comparing outcomes for peggers versus floaters to the U.S. dollar in response to a dollar depreciation. Pegger currencies depreciate relative to floater currencies and these depreciations are strongly expansionary. The boom is associated with a fall in net exports, and (if anything) an increase in interest rates in the pegger countries. This suggests that expenditure switching and domestic monetary policy are not the main drivers of the boom. We show that a large class of existing models cannot match our estimated responses and develop a model with imperfect financial openness that can. Following a depreciation, uncovered interest parity deviations lower the costs of borrowing from abroad and stimulate the economy, as in the data. The model is consistent with (unconditional) exchange rate disconnect and the Mussa fact, even though exchange rates have large effects on the economy.

Replication Package

A Plucking Model of Business Cycles

(with Stéphane Dupraz and Emi Nakamura)

Journal of Monetary Economics, 152, 103766, June 2025.

AAbstract (click to expand): In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a "natural rate" and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view - labeled the "plucking model" by Milton Friedman - is that economic fluctuations are drops below the economy's full potential ceiling. We show that the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the US display a striking asymmetry that strongly favors the plucking model: increases in unemployment are followed by decreases of similar amplitude, while the amplitude of a decrease does not predict the amplitude of the following increase. In addition, business cycles last seven years on average and unemployment rises much faster during recessions than it falls during expansions. We augment a standard labor search model with downward nominal wage rigidity and show how it can fit the plucking property.

Code to Date Peaks and Troughs

Replication Package

Appendix

When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870

(with Paul Bouscasse and Emi Nakamura)

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 140(2), 835-888, May 2025.

AAbstract (click to expand): We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these Malthusian dynamics. We find that productivity growth was zero before 1600. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. Thus, the onset of productivity growth preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of seventeenth-century England. We estimate productivity growth of 2% per decade between 1600 and 1800, increasing to 5% per decade between 1810 and 1860. Much of the increase in output growth during the Industrial Revolution is explained by structural change—the falling importance of land in production—rather than faster productivity growth. Stagnant real wages in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries—Engels’ Pause—is explained by rapid population growth putting downward pressure on real wages. Yet feedback from population growth to real wages is sufficiently weak to permit sustained deviations from the “iron law of wages” prior to the Industrial Revolution.

Estimates

Appendix

Replication Package

Learning About the Long Run

(with Leland Farmer and Emi Nakamura)

Journal of Political Economy, 132(10), 3334-3377, October 2024.

AAbstract (click to expand): Forecasts of professional forecasters are anomalous: they are biased, and forecast errors are autocorrelated and predictable by forecast revisions. We propose that these anomalies arise because professional forecasters do not know the model that generates the data. We show that Bayesian agents learning about hard-to-learn features of the world can generate all the prominent aggregate anomalies emphasized in the literature. We show this for professional forecasts of nominal interest rates and Congressional Budget Office forecasts of gross domestic product growth. Our learning model for interest rates can explain observed deviations from the expectations hypothesis of the term structure without relying on time variation in risk premia.

Appendix

Replication Package

Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries

(with Masao Fukui and Emi Nakamura)

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(1), 269-313, January 2023.

AAbstract (click to expand): Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slowdown comes entirely from female employment, as women’s employment rates converged toward men’s during the past half-century. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? We estimate the extent to which women “crowd out” men in the labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through the lens of a general equilibrium model with home production, we show this statistic implies that 60-75 percent of the slowdown in recent business cycle recoveries can be explained by female convergence.

Appendix

Replication Package

The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States

(with Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreno and Emi Nakamura)

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(3), 1299-1344, August 2022.

AAbstract (click to expand): We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multiregion model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation between 1990 and 2020 is mostly due to long-run inflation expectations becoming more firmly anchored.

Appendix

State Level CPI Data (BETA)

ReadMe for State Level CPIs

Replication Package

The Gift of Moving: Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock

(with Emi Nakamura and Jósef Sigurdsson)

Review of Economic Studies, 89(3), 1557-1592, May 2022.

AAbstract (click to expand): We exploit a volcanic “experiment” to study the costs and benefits of geographic mobility. In our experiment, a third of the houses in a town were covered by lava. People living in these houses were much more likely to move away permanently. For the dependents in a household (children), our estimates suggest that being induced to move by the “lava shock” dramatically raised lifetime earnings and education. While large, these estimates come with a substantial amount of statistical uncertainty. The benefits of moving were very unequally distributed across generations: the household heads (parents) were made slightly worse off by the shock. These results suggest large barriers to moving for the children, which imply that labour does not flow to locations where it earns the highest returns. The large gains from moving for the young are surprising in light of the fact that the town affected by our volcanic experiment was (and is) a relatively high income town. We interpret our findings as evidence of the importance of comparative advantage: the gains to moving may be very large for those badly matched to the location they happened to be born in, even if differences in average income are small.

Appendix

Replication Files

Slides

Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View

(with Adam Guren, Alisdair McKay, and Emi Nakamura)

Review of Economic Studies, 88(2), 669-707, March 2021.

AAbstract (click to expand): We provide new time-varying estimates of the housing wealth effect back to the 1980s. We use three identification strategies: ordinary least squares with a rich set of controls, the Saiz housing supply elasticity instrument, and a new instrument that exploits systematic differences in city-level exposure to regional house price cycles. All three identification strategies indicate that housing wealth elasticities were if anything slightly smaller in the 2000s than in earlier time periods. This implies that the important role housing played in the boom and bust of the 2000s was due to larger price movements rather than an increase in the sensitivity of consumption to house prices. Full-sample estimates based on our new instrument are smaller than recent estimates, though they remain economically important. We find no significant evidence of a boom-bust asymmetry in the housing wealth elasticity. We show that these empirical results are consistent with the behaviour of the housing wealth elasticity in a standard life-cycle model with borrowing constraints, uninsurable income risk, illiquid housing, and long-term mortgages. In our model, the housing wealth elasticity is relatively insensitive to changes in the distribution of loanto-value (LTV) for two reasons: first, low-leverage homeowners account for a substantial and stable part of the aggregate housing wealth elasticity; second, a rightward shift in the LTV distribution increases not only the number of highly sensitive constrained agents but also the number of underwater agents whose consumption is insensitive to house prices.

Local House Price Sensitivity Estimates

Online Appendix

Replication Files

What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics

(with Adam Guren, Alisdair McKay, and Emi Nakamura)

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 175-223.

Online Appendix

Replication Files

New Evidence on the Cyclicality of Employer-to-Employer Flows from Canada

(with Alice Nakamura, Emi Nakamura, and Kyle Phong)

American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 109, 456-460, May 2019.

Replication Files: Companion paper: Worker Reallocation over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Canada

The Elusive Costs of Inflation: Price Dispersion during the U.S. Great Inflation

(with Emi Nakamura, Patrick Sun, and Daniel Villar)

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(4), 1933-1980, November 2018.

AAbstract (click to expand): A key policy question is: how high an inflation rate should central banks target? This depends crucially on the costs of inflation. An important concern is that high inflation will lead to inefficient price dispersion. Workhorse New Keynesian models imply that this cost of inflation is very large. An increase in steady state inflation from 0% to 10% yields a welfare loss that is an order of magnitude greater than the welfare loss from business cycle fluctuations in output in these models. We assess this prediction empirically using a new data set on price behavior during the Great Inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s in the United States. If price dispersion increases rapidly with inflation, we should see the absolute size of price changes increasing with inflation: price changes should become larger as prices drift further from their optimal level at higher inflation rates. We find no evidence that the absolute size of price changes rose during the Great Inflation. This suggests that the standard New Keynesian analysis of the welfare costs of inflation is wrong and its implications for the optimal inflation rate need to be reassessed. We also find that (nonsale) prices have not become more flexible over the past 40 years.

Appendix

Slides

ELI Concordance

Replication Material

Press: WSJ (8/19/16), FT (3/16/18), Forbes (8/19/16)

High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect

(with Emi Nakamura)

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(3), 1283-1330, August 2018.

AAbstract (click to expand): We present estimates of monetary non-neutrality based on evidence from highfrequency responses of real interest rates, expected inflation, and expected output growth. Our identifying assumption is that unexpected changes in interest rates in a 30-minute window surrounding scheduled Federal Reserve announcements arise from news about monetary policy. In response to an interest rate hike, nominal and real interest rates increase roughly one-for-one, several years out into the term structure, while the response of expected inflation is small. At the same time, forecasts about output growth also increase—the opposite of what standard models imply about a monetary tightening. To explain these facts, we build a model in which Fed announcements affect beliefs not only about monetary policy but also about other economic fundamentals. Our model implies that these information effects play an important role in the overall causal effect of monetary policy shocks on output.

Appendix

Slides

Replication Files

Policy News Shocks (original sample period): Policy News Shocks constructed by Acosta, Brennan, and Jacobson for an updated sample period may be found here.

The Discounted Euler Equation: A Note

(with Alisdair McKay and Emi Nakamura)

Economica, 84, 820-831, October 2017.

AAbstract (click to expand): We present a simple model with income risk and borrowing constraints that yields a ‘discounted Euler equation’. This feature of the model mutes the extent to which news about far future real interest rates (i.e. forward guidance) affects current outcomes. We show that this simple model approximates the outcomes of a rich model with uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints in response to a forward guidance shock. The model is simple enough to be easily incorporated into simple New Keynesian models. We illustrate this with an application to the zero lower bound.

Informational Rigidities and the Stickiness of Temporary Sales

(with Eric Anderson, Benjamin Malin, Emi Nakamura, and Duncan Simester)

Journal of Monetary Economics, 90, 64-83, October 2017.

AAbstract (click to expand): How do retailers react to cost changes? While temporary sales account for 95% of price change in our data, retail prices respond to a wholesale cost increase entirely through the regular price. Sales actually respond temporarily in the opposite direction from regular prices, as though to conceal the price hike. Additional evidence from responses to commodity cost and local unemployment shocks, as well as broader evidence from BLS data, reinforces these findings. Institutional evidence indicates that sales are complex contingent contracts, determined substantially in advance. In a standard price-discrimination model, these institutional practices leave little money “on the table”.

Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence

(with Emi Nakamura and Dmitriy Sergeyev)

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(1), 1-39, January 2017.

AAbstract (click to expand): We provide new estimates of the importance of growth-rate shocks and uncertainty shocks for developed countries. The shocks we estimate are large and correspond to well-known macroeconomic episodes such as the Great Moderation and the productivity slowdown. We compare our results to earlier estimates of “long-run risks” and assess the implications for asset pricing. Our estimates yield greater return predictability and a more volatile price-dividend ratio. In addition, we can explain a substantial fraction of cross-country variation in the equity premium. An advantage of our approach, based on macroeconomic data alone, is that the parameter estimates cannot be viewed as backward engineered to fit asset pricing data. We provide intuition for our results using the recently developed framework of shock-exposure and shock-price elasticities.

Figure A.1

Data and Programs

The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited

(with Alisdair McKay and Emi Nakamura)

American Economic Review, 106(10), 3133-3158, October 2016.

AAbstract (click to expand): In recent years, central banks have increasingly turned to forward guidance as a central tool of monetary policy. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance has huge effects on current outcomes, and these effects grow with the horizon of the forward guidance. We present a model in which the power of forward guidance is highly sensitive to the assumption of complete markets. When agents face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints, a precautionary savings effect tempers their responses to changes in future interest rates. As a consequence, forward guidance has substantially less power to stimulate the economy

Programs

Erratum

Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves

(with Emi Nakamura and Miao Liu)

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8(3), 113-144, July 2016.

AAbstract (click to expand): China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and consumption growth was overstated. In contrast, inflation was overstated and growth understated during the low-inflation 1990s. These patterns hold for the food Engel curve, and for numerous other categories, such as grain as a fraction of food.

Press: Wall Street Journal (10/19/16), Economist (3/15/14), Wall Street Journal (2/14/14), Financial Times (12/2/13)

Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from U.S. Regions

(with Emi Nakamura)

American Economic Review, 104(3), 753-792, March 2014.

AAbstract (click to expand): We use rich historical data on military procurement to estimate the effects of government spending. We exploit regional variation in military buildups to estimate an “open economy relative multiplier” of approximately 1.5. We develop a framework for interpreting this estimate and relating it to estimates of the standard closed economy aggregate multiplier. The latter is highly sensitive to how strongly aggregate monetary and tax policy “leans against the wind.” Our open economy relative multiplier “differences out” these effects because monetary and tax policies are uniform across the nation. Our evidence indicates that demand shocks can have large effects on output.

Technical Appendix

Erratum

How to Get Military Prime Contract Data

Vox Article: Does Fiscal Stimulus Work in a Montary Union? Data and Programs

Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters

(with Emi Nakamura, Robert Barro and José Ursúa)

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(3), 35-74, July 2013.

AAbstract (click to expand): We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using new data on consumption for 24 countries over more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for partial recoveries after disasters that unfold over multiple years. We find that roughly half of the drop in consumption due to disasters is subsequently reversed. Our model generates a sizable equity premium from disaster risk, but one that is substantially smaller than in simpler models. It implies that a large value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is necessary to explain stock-market crashes at the onset of disasters.

Web Appendix

Data and Programs

Vox Article: Disasters, Recoveries, and the Equity Premium

Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market

(with Emi Nakamura)

American Economic Review, 102(7), 3277-3316, December 2012.

AAbstract (click to expand): In the microdata underlying US trade price indexes, 40 percent of products are replaced before a single price change is observed and 70 percent are replaced after two price changes or fewer. A price index that focuses on price changes for identical items may, therefore, miss an important component of price adjustment occurring at the time of product replacements. We provide a model of this “product replacement bias” and quantify its importance using US data. Accounting for product replacement bias, long-run exchange rate “pass-through” is substantially higher than conventional estimates suggest, and the terms of trade are substantially more volatile.

Press: BusinessWeek (6/3/09), BusinessWeek (10/14/09) Comments on Gagnon, Mandel, and Vigfusson (2013)

Price Setting in Forward-Looking Customer Markets

(with Emi Nakamura)

Journal of Monetary Economics, 58(3), 220-233, April 2011.

AAbstract (click to expand): If consumers form habits in individual goods, firms face a time-inconsistency problem. Low prices in the future help attract customers in the present. Firms, therefore, have an incentive to promise low prices in the future, but price gouge when the future arrives. In this setting, firms benefit from "committing to a sticky price." If consumers have incomplete information about costs and demand, the firm-preferred equilibrium has the firm price at or below a "price cap." The model therefore provides an explanation for the simultaneous existence of a rigid regular price and frequent "sales".

Technical Appendix

Firm Price Commitments

Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multi-Sector Menu Cost Model

(with Emi Nakamura)

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(3), 961-1013, August 2010.

AAbstract (click to expand): Empirical evidence suggests that as much as one-third of the U.S. business cycle is due to nominal shocks. We calibrate a multisector menu cost model using new evidence on the cross-sectional distribution of the frequency and size of price changes in the U.S. economy. We augment the model to incorporate intermediate inputs. We show that the introduction of heterogeneity in the frequency of price change triples the degree of monetary non-neutrality generated by the model. We furthermore show that the introduction of intermediate inputs raises the degree of monetary non-neutrality by another factor of three, without adversely affecting the model's ability to match the large average size of price changes. A single-sector model with a frequency of price change equal to the median, rather than the mean, generates monetary non-neutrality similar to that in our multisector model. Our multisector model with intermediate inputs generates variation in real output in response to calibrated aggregate nominal shocks that can account for roughly 23% of the U.S. business cycle.

Erratum

Appendix

Replication Code

Documentation

Five Facts About Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models

(with Emi Nakamura)

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(4), 1415-1464, November 2008.

AAbstract (click to expand): We establish five facts about prices in the U.S. economy: (1) For consumer prices, the median frequency of nonsale price change is roughly half of what it is including sales (9-12% per month versus 19-20% per month for identical items; 11-13% per month versus 21-22% per month including product substitutions). The median frequency of price change for finished-goods producer prices is comparable to that of consumer prices excluding sales. (2) One-third of nonsale price changes are price decreases. (3) The frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation, whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not. (4) The frequency of price change is highly seasonal: it is highest in the first quarter and then declines. (5) We find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products. We show that the first, second, and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu-cost model, whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not.

ELI table (Excel): Supplementary Material: More Facts About Prices Tables in Excel: Tables from Paper

Tables from Supplement (Excel): Press: The Economist (11/9/06), Handelsblatt (2/8/10)

Frequency of Price Change by ELI: ELI table (PDF)

The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky-Price Models

American Economic Review, 98(1), 519-533, March 2008.

Theoretical Programs

Documentation: Erratum

Response to Iversen and Söderström (2014)

Appendix: Derivation of the Model Matlab Programs: Empirical Programs

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Economy with Inflation Presistence

Journal of Monetary Economics 50(7), 1425-1456, October 2003.

AAbstract (click to expand): This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a model where inflation is persistent. Two types of price setters are assumed to exist. One acts rationally given Calvo-type constraints on price setting. The other type sets prices according to a rule-of-thumb. This results in a Phillips curve with both a forward-looking term and a backward-looking term. The Phillips curve nests a standard purely forward-looking Phillips curve as well as a standard purely backward-looking Phillips curve as special cases. A cost push supply shock is derived from microfoundations by adding a time varying income tax and by making the elasticity of substitution between goods stochastic. A central bank loss function for this model is derived from a second-order Taylor approximation of the household's welfare function. Optimal monetary policy for different relative values of the forward- and backward-looking terms is then analyzed for both the commitment case and the case of discretion.

Erratum

Programs

Comment on "The International Monetary Transmission Mechanism"

by Santiago Camara and Lawrence Christiano.

Slides

NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 141-148, April 2024.

Thoughts on Fed Policy and the Fed's Framework

in Bordon, M.D., J.H. Cochrane, and J.B. Taylor (ed),

Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, CA., 2025, p. 363-373.

Comment on "The Rise, the Fall, and the Resurrection of Iceland"

by Sigridur Benediksdottir, Gauti B. Eggertsson, and Eggert Thorarinsson.

Brookings Panel on Economic Acticity, 289-302, September 2017. Slides (also given at NBER ME Meeting, November 2017)

Monetary Economics at the NBER

(with Emi Nakamura)

December 2019.

Should the Fed Ignore the Most Important Bias in the CPI?

(with Emi Nakamura)

December 2007.

The Implementation of Monetary Policy in an Era of Electronic Payment Systems

March 2005.

Some International Evidence on Non-Linear Phillips Curves

Discussion of paper by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson at AEA Meetings, January 2024

Fed Communication

Discussion of paper by Stephen G. Cecchetti and Kermit L. Schoenholtz at Fed Listens conference, June 2019

Identification in Macroeconomics

Presentation given at a conference on Frontiers of Macroeconomics in Shanghai, December 2018

The Rise, the Fall, and the Resurrection of Iceland

by Sigridur Benediksdottir, Gauti B. Eggertsson, and Eggert Thorarinsson.

Discussion at Brookings Panel on Economic Acticity, September 2017, and NBER ME Meeting, November 2017 (see also published comments listed above)

Large and State-dependent Effects of Quasi-random Monetary Experiments

by Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. Discussion at NBER ME Meeting, October 2016

Monetary Policy According to HANK

by Greg Kaplan, Ben Moll, and Gianluca Violante. Discussion at NBER EF&G Meeting, February 2016

The Forward Premium Puzzle

by Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Christina Patterson. Discussion at NBER EF&G Meeting, October 2015

Thoughts on AJR's Nobel Prize

October 2024 (and September 2025).

A Painless Disinflation Is No Longer Plausible

Economist; May 13th 2022.

How Should the Fed Respond to the Highest Inflation in 40 Years?

a debate with Claudia Sahm, Pairagraph, December 2021.

A New Macroeconomics?

July 2nd 2021.

Iceland's Experience May Offer a Lesson

Financial Times; June 29th 2015.

Don't Replace Data with Ideology

(with Emi Nakamura and Nicolas Vincent)

Bloomberg View; June 12th 2012.